According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), while nine out of ten Syrians live in poverty and one in four is unemployed, the Syrian economy could return to pre-conflict levels within a decade—provided it achieves strong growth.
The UNDP’s preliminary socio-economic impact assessment reveals that fourteen years of ongoing conflict have reversed nearly forty years of progress in Syria’s economic, social, and human capital development. The report delivers a stark warning: at the current rate of growth, Syria’s economy will not return to pre-conflict GDP levels before 2080. To reduce recovery time to ten years, the country’s annual economic growth rate would need to increase sixfold; achieving full recovery within fifteen years would require a tenfold increase.
Titled “The Impact of the Conflict in Syria: A Devastated Economy, Widespread Poverty, and a Difficult Path Toward Social and Economic Recovery,” the report estimates that nine out of ten Syrians currently live in poverty. Syria’s GDP has fallen to less than half its 2011 value, and unemployment has tripled. One in four Syrians is unemployed, while the degradation of public infrastructure has significantly exacerbated the effects of the conflict.
UNDP Administrator Achim Steiner emphasized, “Syria’s recovery requires long-term development investments that go beyond emergency humanitarian aid, focusing on building economic and social stability for its people.” He added, “Restoring productivity to reduce unemployment and poverty, reviving agriculture to ensure food security, and rebuilding infrastructure for essential services like health, education, and energy are key to a self-reliant future, prosperity, and peace.”
The report argues that recovery demands a clear national vision, deep reforms, and effective coordination among institutions. It also highlights that expanding market access is vital for Syria’s economic recovery.